Monday 6 March 2023

World War III In Yet Another Timeline

The War Of Two Worlds, VII.

"Minneapolis-St. Paul had been fairly important for a while after World War III..." (pp. 59-60)

This is a surprise. It does not sound as though "World War III" means the recently concluded interplanetary war. If it does not, then there has been a Third World War some time between 1959 when this novel was published and 2022 when the interplanetary war began.  We learn a little more of the history:

Minneapolis-St. Paul had been important as a terminal for rapidly expanding air-freight lines;

however, within a decade, technology made such terminals redundant;

the double city had become a minor airport and manufacturing centre, described as quaint and old-fashioned;

Chicago was laid waste during the interplanetary war;

Duluth and other midwest cities had declined as a result;

therefore, Minneapolis-St. Paul became Martian continental headquarters.

9 comments:

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Paul!

About all I can think of is how the capital of Hungary, Budapest, also began as two separate cities, Buda and Pest, with the Danube River running between them.

Ad astra! Sean

S.M. Stirling said...

Sean: and before that, it was Roman Acquincum, capital of "Lower Pannonia".

S.M. Stirling said...

BTW, a lot of people in 1945-55 -expected- another World War.

I think they had good reasons: what they weren't factoring in was the qualitative difference that increasing numbers of nuclear weapons were making in geopolitics.

If nuclear weapons -hadn't- come along, there probably -would- have been another World War; the cycle would have continued until the world was politically united under the ultimate winner.

It's a function of other technological innovations.

The possible size of a state is basically a function of the speed of communications and the cost of transportation.

In the 2nd century AD, the two largest empires on Earth both had about 1/3 of the total global population -- the Roman Empire and the Western Han dynasty in China.

They were about at the limits of preindustrial technology, or possibly a bit over it.

But the 19th century, essentially with telegraphs and railroads and steamships, blew off the upper limit.

That doesn't mean that empires -have- to be bigger, but it does mean that they -can- be bigger.

That's what Mackinder and his 'geopolitics' said, dressed up in some fancy geological determinism.

(The big weakness of Mackinder and his "heartland" theory was that he failed to note how the center of Eurasia is mostly very dry, very cold, very mountainous, or combinations thereof. Hence it's not the pivot of the world, even in potentia It's not an accident that most of the world's population lives within 500 miles of navigable water; that's where the farmland is.)

But Mackinder's -basic- concept -- that continental-sized states in an age of electronic communications and mechanized land transport -- now shared the advantages which sea travel had traditionally given insular ones, that -was- correct.

Absent nukes, the world would probably have 1-3 empires or empire-scaled alliances now.

S.M. Stirling said...

NB: note that Rome was basically a realm focused around the Mediterranean, dependent on sea transport, with some 'nodes' sticking into the continental interiors.

China was a bit more of a tour-de-force, but it was oriented around river valleys, first the Yellow River, then the Yangtze, and that it eventually united them with the world's first long-distance canal system, giving cheap transport to anywhere within reach of those two great regions.

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Mr. Stirling!

IOW, the Peace of the Mushroom Cloud, no matter how unsatisfactory that is in many ways. And I can't help but wonder how long such a peace can last, before somebody, either reckless or desperate, uses nukes.

Your BLACK CHAMBER shows the world turning out how it might have happened in a timeline very much like ours: the globe being divvied up among three or four empires, American, German, British, and Japanese. With Austria-Hungary an apparently resentful "ally" of Germany.

Ad astra! Sean

S.M. Stirling said...

Sean: yeah, that's BC... add in that they have weapons of mass destruction too. Not -quite- as bad as nuclear weapons, but close.

In some respects, nerve gas is more like the neutron bomb -- kills the people, leaves the loot, and the effects don't last.

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Mr. Stirling!

Once you pointed that out, I agree, comparing nerve gas weapons to neutron bombs. Albeit, the thinking behind it, during the Cold War, was that neutron bombs would be useful in combating a Soviet invasion of the NATO alliance

And your BLACK CHAMBER timeline has some nations dissatisfied with the dominance of the Big Four, like the Mad Baron in Mongolia or a warier, more forethoughtful Austria-Hungary.

Ad astra! Sean

S.M. Stirling said...

Sean: I don't believe in lack of dissatisfaction... 8-).

People like being #1. Other people being #1, not so much.

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Mr. Stirling!

Ha! Of course I agree! Little countries like Andorra have to resign themselves to being powerless and surviving on the sufferance of powerful neighbors, but others will refuse being so helpless. I can see Austria-Hungary, due to greater patience and wiliness, making a better go at improving its position than the Mad Baron.

Ad astra! Sean