Thursday 22 August 2019

Probabilities

See Computer Predictions And Simulations.

The Hammer, CHAPTER EIGHT.

"probability of serious epidemic 80% +or-, 6%, Center said, probability of city surrendering to siege before return of Stern Island force 6% +or- 2%. probability of decisive results from siege operations, too low to calculate meaningfully." (p. 436)

Could a "teela" (see Luck) succeed against overwhelming odds? Maybe. Or maybe it is her genes that are lucky so that her descendants will prosper long term even though she loses short term.

Apparently, Raj is up against barbarians who, like Larry Niven's kzinti during the Wars Against Men, can be guaranteed to attack when they are unready because the experience of defeat has not yet naturally selected them for caution or common sense whereas both Poul Anderson's Merseian Roidhunate and SM Stirling's Domination of the Draka pursue millennial strategies toward global, then galactic, hegemony. Know your enemy.

1 comment:

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Paul!

And I remember reading somewhere that Larry Niven came to regret thinking up Teela Brown and her good luck genes! Because such things made it increasingly difficult for him to think of interesting stories set in the Known Space universe.

And to be fair to the Kzin we do see them slowly and painfully learning, via repeated defeats, of how useful it can be thinking and planning carefully. As we see in Stirling's novel THE CHILDREN'S HOUR, set in the Known Space timeline.

And civilized (if I can use that word of the Draka!) enemies like the Roidhunate and the Domination are far more dangerous than barbarians like Anderson's Scothanians or Drake/Stirling's Squadrons.

Btw, I noticed how, in some of your comments about PERISH BY THE SWORD, you gave some stress to pointing out occasional science fictional turns of phrase Anderson wrote into the book. Here's another one, from Chapter Eight: " ...and speculated that a race of furry intelligent beings might be less afraid of their dead than man is."

Sean