Chunderban Desai expounds a specific sophisticated cyclical historical theory to Dominic Flandry:
"'Growth until wrong decisions bring breakdown...'"
-Poul Anderson, A Knight of Ghosts and Shadows IN Anderson, Sir Dominic Flandry: The Last Knight of Terra (Riverdale, NY, March 2012), pp. 339-606 AT III, p. 388.
Desai summarizes:
growth
wrong decisions
breakdown
wars
Imperial Pax
dissolution
reconstitution
disintegration
dark age
ruins of old society
new society beginning in the ruins
growth
etc
"'Technic civilization started on that road when the Polesotechnic League changed from a mutual-aid organization to a set of cartels. Tonight we are far along the way.'" (pp. 388-389)
With metaphorical appropriateness, he says, "Tonight...," not "Today..."
Desai and Flandry live during either the initial Pax or its reconstitution, I am not sure which. Later, Flandry tells Miriam Abrams that she and he are living during the interregnum between the principate and dominate phases of the Empire. I had thought that Molitor, the usurper, represented the dominate phase and therefore the reconstitution but maybe not. Desai says that a "'...centralized divine autocracy...'" (p. 388) still lies ahead.
We have summarized all this before. My present point is that I think that Desai's exposition captures something that we might feel:
that there is something wrong in society;
that we can see many symptoms but not identify any specific cause;
that people in pivotal positions might be able to set things right if only they knew what decisions to make;
that most of us are helpless most of the time;
that a catastrophe is bearing down on us.
I describe this as a feeling, not an analysis, and maybe not everyone feels it. To me, Desai's account rings true although that is certainly not to defend all its details.