We quickly orient ourselves when reading a new speculative novel. In SM Stirling's Snowbrother, there was a "Godwar" followed by a "Year Without Sun"... (Chapter 1, p. 6) People ride horses, fight with swords and find metals in the "'...ruins of the Old Ones...'" (Chapter 3, p. 31) This is clear enough.
These descendants of the Old Ones do not necessarily share our understanding of what must have happened:
"...no Minztan would fell a tree without the proper ceremonies of explanation and apology; such heedlessness had brought the fire down on the Old Ones." (Chapter 2, p. 12)
These Minztans do have a partial understanding. Those Old Ones were heedless of their environment.
A shaman (see image) speaks of holding other minds within his and giggles at one of his chief's thoughts so we understand that he is telepathic. Is this telepathy a remote consequence of the Godwar or a separate premise? We do not yet know everything about this new environment. We read on in expectation of further understanding.
32 comments:
Kaor, Paul!
I would have told the Mintzans that the "Godwar" was caused by our follies, quarrels, and miscalculations. And not by "heedlessness" about cutting down trees!
Sean
Sean,
But aren't they connected? Environmental heedlessness is one of our follies.
Paul.
HIGHLY OT, BUT (HOPEFULLY) USEFUL:
http://www.math.wisc.edu/~mstemper2/SpecFic/Anderson/Encyclopedia
Do you know this gentleman who compiled it?
http://www.math.wisc.edu/~mstemper2/
-kh
Keith,
No but I have now linked to him.
Paul.
Kaor, Paul and Keith!
Paul: No, I would consider "heedlessness" about the environment rather long range and indirect in its socio/political consequences. Contending powers are more likely to quarrel over political, ideological, military, and territorial matters. Not over the cutting down of trees!
Kaith: I don't think telling us about Mr. Stemper's "Poul Anderson Encyclopedia" was at all off topic. I've already dropped by that website for a quick look. Well worth a longer, more careful visit!
Sean
Sean,
Agreed, powers don't fight about trees although they do fight about dwindling resources.
Heedlessness about the environment is now having rapid, major, global consequences with an increase in the rate of extinctions.
Paul.
Kaor, Paul!
I am not at all entirely convinced about the "dwindling resources" bit. Advances in technology has opened up vast new sources in oil, for instance. Altho I would prefer to phase out oil via nuclear power and space based solar power satellites.
And I'm frankly not to concerned about all extinctions! Such as the fuss made in the US about the now infamous snail darter.
Sean
Sean,
But there is a rapidly increasing rare of extinctions, including among bees and other insects. We address the future both by reading scientifically based speculative fiction and by discussing present scientific predictions which are apocalyptic.
Paul.
Sean,
As you know, when I am not sitting here blogging, I am getting around acting in the world. Today in Lancaster, I marched and rallied with very vocal and highly organized school pupils. Locally today was a school holiday but, twice before, they have "struck," i.e., not attended school. Demonstrating for emergency climate action, they chanted:
"The oceans are rising and so are we!";
"Climate change is not a lie.
"Do not let our planet die...";
"No more coal! No more oil!
"Leave the carbon in the soil!"
They marched in silence along part of the route, through Market Square, so as not to disturb a concurrent song and dance event. (We have a vibrant City Centre.)
The LYFE (Lancaster Youth for the Environment) rally was supported and addressed by the Member of Parliament for Lancaster, the Mayor of Lancaster and both City and County Councillors of at least two Parties. The National Education Union (trade union for school teachers) supported the rally with its banner.
Everyone had a good time and felt that they had made their point to the people of Lancaster.
Paul.
Kaor, Paul!
No SENSIBLE person denies climate changes over time. That said, respectable and honorable people with real knowledge of the weather and climate can still disagree with those who claim the Earth is RAPIDLY heating up. I recall S.M. Stirling commenting here not long ago, I think, that we are OVERDUE for another Ice Age.
It's fine if you don't want to use coal or oil. BUT, what are you going to replace them with? ONLY nuclear power or space based solar power satellites can provide the massive amounts of energy a high tech civilization needs. If we are not going to get SERIOUS about nuclear energy or a REAL space program, then forget it, oil and coal will continue to be used.
I would far rather the young members of LYFE became nuclear physicists, engineers, and space scientists. That would do far more good for the UK and the world than all these marches or demonstrations can ever do.
Sean
Sean,
Some of them will become those things, of course. We all follow different careers options, making different kinds of contributions, including those who, we hope, continue to become speculative writers.
I agree about a space program and solar energy. That energy is radiating out into space in every direction all the time.
Paul.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/DecadalTemp
The world has warmed steadily since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and the evidence supports the conclusion that this temperature increase is caused by human activity.
Demonstrations influence public perceptions and policies.
Kaor, Paul!
Most people just drift into their jobs or occupations. I would far rather many more deliberately became nuclear physicists, engineers, and space scientists.
I agree the climate has probably changed due to human activities since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Where the skeptics differ from the more extreme "warmists" is how rapidly that has occurred and what can or should be done about it.
And I remain skeptical of the value of demonstrations, esp. in the jaded West where anyone can demonstrate about anything so often that I doubt they really do much to "influence public perceptions and policies."
And I support the use of nuclear energy as well. I do not agree with the anti-nuclear hysteria. Both that and space based solar energy will be needed to phase out oil and coal.
Sean
Sean,
Again, the rate of temperature increase is monitored and measured and it is necessary to put less carbon into the atmosphere.
Paul.
A cartoon I've seen, the artist of which is unknown to me, has a delightfully black-humorous summation:
A human approaches the embodiment of Earth...
Human: Mother Gaia, I come on behalf of all humans to apologize for destroying nature and beg for forgiveness.
Gaia: (reaching out to him with a smile): Oh my beloved self-centered humans...
Human (as Gaia hugs him maternally): We're sorry for being so selfish. We never meant to kill nature.
Gaia (still smiling): That wasn't what I meant by self-centered. Nature is adaptable. No matter what you do to it it will simply change and take on new forms. It has survived worse things than you.
You are however in the process of changing it so much that you can't live in it. You're not killing nature, you're killing yourself.
That's what I mean by self-centered. You think that just because you can't live, then nothing can.
Human (looking shocked): What?
Gaia (STILL smiling): You're screwing yourself over big time and won't be missed.
We're dead, Jim!
Kaor, Paul!
And, again, that will be possible only by phasing out oil and coal with REALISTIC alternatives. Which means nuclear power and space based solar energy satellites. Both of which I support.
Sean
Sean,
OK. It just seems that there is a great urgency about this and this is coming from scientists, not just from political opponents of the status quo.
Paul.
Kaor, Paul!
Then people should be advocating FOR nuclear power and a real space program of the kind needed for constructing solar power satellites. That means going back to the Moon, and then the asteroid belt to mine for metals. Earth's resources should be used primarily for getting us to that stage.
Right now I have more hope that something real will be done along these lines by the private sector. From people like Elon Musk and SpaceX. I would be delighted if similar entrepreneurs arose in the UK.
Sean
Sean,
Currently, the Terrestrial environment is deteriorating much faster than anyone is getting into space. Some action is needed down here.
Paul.
Kaor, Paul!
And I am not at all sure the "solutions" proposed will do any good. That is where I support the critics of the so called Paris/Kyoto accords. What good are if most of the costs and burdens are imposed on Western/Westernized countries and really gross polluters like India and China get off scot free (with Westernized nations being less polluting than the latter). Bluntly, the accords amount to an attempt by the left in Western countries at seizing more wealth and concentrating yet more power in the state. Both of which I oppose.
Sean
Sean,
Before we get to the rights or wrongs of this debate, I think that our starting point has to be the current predictions of an environmental catastrophe in the very near future. Paul.
Kaor, Paul!
I agree there are PROBLEMS, but I also agreed with the late Jerry Pournelle, to some extent, in the skepticism he expressed about how serious those problems are. And even more with his fierce criticisms of the Paris/Kyoto accords. The solution is NOT more taxes, regulations, and more and more bungling, incompetent gov'ts.
Phasing out oil and coal via nuclear energy and space based solar power satellites, moving heavy industries off Earth, etc., are the ways to go.
Sean
Sean,
There are current apocalyptic predictions, dating from now, since Pournelle's death. Moving industries off Earth is not feasible on the stated time scale.
Paul.
Kaor, Paul!
But phasing out coal and oil via nuclear energy and space based solar power satellites is doable, because the technology for those things exists. What is lacking is the will for actually doing what needs to be done. I continue to oppose the futile Paris/Kyoto accords.
Sean
Sean,
But you are not addressing the urgency and immediacy of current scientific warnings.
Paul.
Kaor, Paul!
I thought I was. If carbon dioxide is a serious problem, what else can be done except by phasing out oil and coal with the alternatives I proposed?
There should be marches and demonstrations in favor of nuclear power and space based solar energy beaming satellites!
Sean
Sean,
If it is true that ecosystems crucial to sustaining life on Earth could collapse in our lifetimes, then some drastic emergency measures are necessary.
Paul.
Kaor, Paul!
And the late Jerry Pournelle would have insisted on solutions that actually addressed the problem. Not more of the same old taxing, heavy handed bureaucratic regulating we see in the Paris/Kyoto accords.
Sean
Sean,
If satisfactory international agreements cannot be achieved, then maybe each country, particularly the richest and most powerful, can give a lead and set an example by implementing solutions that work?
Paul.
12 years until climate catastrophe is unavoidable according to a recent report.
Kaor, Paul!
I've said this before, I don't think China or India, among the very worst polluters, CARES. I doubt any kind of "moral example" from the US, UK, or any other nation will persuade them to even use coal and oil in less polluting ways. Not unless we are willing to COERCE them.
And I still say Western nations should be moving decisively to switching over to nuclear energy and space based solar power satellites.
Sean
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