A Saying And Its Implications

Like Gaul, Ian Fleming's Goldfinger (London, 1975) is divided into three parts:

Part 1, Happenstance;
Part 2, Coincidence;
Part 3, Enemy Action.

The table of contents begins with an explanatory quotation from the novel:

"Goldfinger said, 'Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: "Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, the third time it's enemy action."'" (p. 5)

SM Stirling's characters present a variation:

"'Once is coincidence, twice happenstance...'
"'The third time is a foeman's plan or a message from the Powers...'"
-SM Stirling, The Desert And The Blade (New York, 2016), Chapter Fifteen, p. 308.

Can this tripartite analysis be applied, e.g., to Manse Everard's dealings with the Exaltationists or to Dominic Flandry's dealings with Merseians? At the beginning of The Shield of Time, Everard has thrice been in action against the Exaltationists, only once with any suspicion that they might be behind certain disturbances. Flandry meets Tachwyr once by happenstance, a second time by coincidence and thereafter they are professional opponents. I am sure that Fleming's, Anderson's and Stirling's texts will continue to connect.

Do we receive unrecognized help either from fellow mortals or from "Powers"? Some help is known, some is imagined, some is unknown...