Monday 6 July 2020

Two Predictions

Poul Anderson, "Wellsprings of Dreams" IN Anderson, All One Universe (New York, 1997), pp. 235-247.

Anderson on Hans Moravec, Mind Children (1988) 
"He sees artificial intelligence fully equal to the human in another 40 years or so. This optimism has its doubters, including me..." (p. 242)

"Wellsprings of Dream" was published in Amazing Stories in 1993. 1988 + 40 = 2028. 1993 + 40 = 2033. I am glad that Anderson said that he was a doubter.

Anderson on Global Warning
"Like most honest scientists, [Freeman Dyson] points out that we have no hard evidence for or against its reality. What we have is merely some computer models of phenomena very poorly understood, and the conflicting predictions we get from them. That scarcely justifies radical measures of enormous cost and incalculable social consequences." (p. 240)

What would Anderson say now, twenty seven years later? I don't know but I do know that he would base whatever he said on current data, not on what he had said back then.

3 comments:

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Paul!

I agree, and if the evidence warranted it, he might very well draw conclusions oppose to those you believe to be true. And I emphatically believe Anderson would not support the "solutions" most often urged on us by the left. Rather, he would argue for the solutions offered by Robert Zubrin in his book THE CASE FOR SPACE. Such as nuclear energy and using iron sulfides for sopping up excess carbon dioxide in the oceans.

Ad astra! Sean

S.M. Stirling said...

Yup. Poul was willing to change his position if he thought the evidence had shifted; a far from common ability.

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Paul!

Exactly, because Poul Anderson had a scientific and rational cast of mind. And if he was a conservative leaning towards moderate libertarianism in his political beliefs, I believe that was precisely because of his scientific/rational mentality.

Ad astra! Sean