And what is probable in this century? I take seriously the warnings about an imminent ecological catastrophe but, if civilization somehow survives that, then what? I doubt that AI is as close as some people think. Colonization and exploitation of the Solar System should certainly be within our grasp as should continued long-distance exploration of the rest of the universe. Scientific knowledge has exploded and it would be a tragedy to throw it away. Social conflicts have to be overcome although they are currently intensifying. Are things getting worse before they get better or just getting worse?
3 comments:
Kaor, Paul!
I agree we can feel nostalgic about long familiar and well loved stories. Either for the works of Anderson or those of Tolkien. And the jacket covers I can feel nostalgic about would be Roger Hane's covers for ENSIGN FLANDRY, AGENT OF THE TERRAN EMPIRE, and FLANDRY OF TERRA.
While Poul Anderson had not intended for the Polesotechnic League or Terran Empire stories to be serious futurological speculations (they were originally two separate series), his impulsive linking of these tales made him seek a serious "base" for them.
That is, Anderson felt the need of offering a philosophy of history. E.g., how and why civilizations rise and fall. In this he was influenced by earlier writers like Toynbee and Spengler. But it was the work of John K. Hord who helped him to really make sense of what the Technic stories had become, a chronicle of the rise and fall of mankind's first interstellar civilization.
As Anderson wrote in his article "Concerning Future Histories" (BULLETIN OF THE SCIENCE FICTION WRITERS OF AMERICA, Fall 1979): "After seeing a part of this [Hord's work], I got enthusiastic and asked for more, and before long saw that this was exactly the Leitmotiv I had been needing: the interplay of free will and fate, not in any mystical sense, but as something concretely describable."
Anderson goes on to summarize Hord's speculations on why human civilizations have risen and fallen as seen in real history. And to apply that theory to his Technic stories. So, yes, these stories CAME to have serious futurological speculations.
I am still skeptical of a serious ecological "crash" happening in the near future. I do agree that true AI computer systems are not as close as some think. And I ardently support mankind getting off this rock to colonize other worlds and develop the resources of the Solar System!
Ad astra! Sean
Sean,
Hordian extrapolation does not require either interstellar travel or multiple species.
Paul.
Kaor, Paul!
True, but what Anderson did was to apply Hord's thought to his speculations about interstellar travel and interactions with non-human sophont races.
Ad astra! Sean
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