"...it was not too surprising that [the Kirkasanters] leaped in a single lifetime from the first moon rockets to the first hyperdrive craft -" (p. 730)
But we would be able to do that if anyone were to formulate a practicable theory of a hyperdrive. Poul Anderson pointed out in "The Discovery of the Past," in Past Times, that only sixty-six years separated the first powered flight from the first Moon landing and that his mother was alive for both. So, from powered flight to Moon landing to hyperdrive could be two lifetimes - if hyperdrive is theoretically possible, which is another question.
Speculative fiction can extrapolate current trends or postulate new discoveries which are at least possible, indeed will happen, but are inherently unpredictable. I hope that the Webb telescope will discover advanced civilizations nearby although as yet there is no evidence for them. One possibility is that they destroy themselves early, as ours is doing.
9 comments:
Kaor, Paul!
But it might take much longer for people like the Kirkasanters to again reach the stars. In some ways Kirkasant was not a desirable planet to colonize. Starting with only a small number of men and women on a harsh world meant they would have to struggle to survive and adapt. They would inevitably regress to a very low level of tech. Time, much time, for relearning and rebuilding.
Ad astra! Sean
Sean,
It took them 5000 years.
Paul.
Kaor, Paul!
Which shows how harsh a world Kirkasant was.
Ad astra! Sean
Anderson was rather vague on how long it took the Maurai or the people of the Northwest Union to get their technology back up to where they are at the start of "Orion Shall Rise". How extensive the records of what their ancestors had would make a *big* difference, both in that case & for the Kirkasanters.
"One possibility is that they destroy themselves early, as ours is doing."
That destruction is to a large extent because of people who think they are doing the right thing.
A major silver lining to Putin's war is that opposition to nuclear power may be discredited. Nuclear power is the main thing we need to stop global warming & other environmental destruction.
Kaor, Jim!
I think Anderson suggested, for his Maurai stories, that too many books had been printed and widely spread for much scientific knowledge to be lost. Neo-savages would burn libraries for fuel, but not all libraries were burnt!
The chief flaw with the Maurai short stories was the implausible lack of metals. An error Anderson somewhat walked back on in ORION WILL RISE.
And it's high time the ignorant hysteria of the anti-nuclear Luddites was cast aside! I only wish the US was getting 75% of its energy from nuclear power as France is doing.
Ad astra! Sean
Yeah, the shortage of metals was a weakness in the Maurai worldbuilding.
Iron is just too common. Even if some big mines have been worked out, there are still plenty of -small- deposits that could be used at a preindustrial level.
We didn't abandon the use of small, scattered iron ore deposits because they ran out; we switched to more concentrated deposits like Kiruna or Labrador or the Mesabi Range because bulking the small deposits together was uneconomic once iron and steel plants reached a certain size.
It was cheaper to mine large deposits even in remote areas and ship the ore.
Kaor, Mr. Stirling!
We see Anderson avoiding that error in THE WINTER OF THE WORLD, after an Ice Age brought down our civilization. Metals were still plentiful, both from sources like the smaller deposits you mentioned and from mining ancient skyscrapers for their steel frames.
Ad astra! Sean
"the implausible lack of metals."
It's implausible on a worldwide scale, but my impression is that the polynesian islands are rather short of good metal ore bodies. New Zealand being better than the smaller islands. The Maurai would get metals from New Zealand plus the continents around the Pacific, and maximize what they can do with such things as wood stone & ceramic to save on imports.
Kaor, Jim!
I agree, it was an error to show metals being as rare and costly as stated in "The Sky People." Continental North America would still have plenty of metals.
Yes, it's reasonable to think metals were rarer on many Pacific islands. But the Maurai should have been shown importing metals from the continents--besides making use of wood, stone, ceramics.
Ad astra! Sean
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