Futurological Fiction

There is a job that Poul Anderson would have been good at if he had been asked to do it and had agreed.

My Idea:

A research institute pays an sf author to write a novel every ten years. Each novel must be set exactly ten years in the future and must be based on the most accurate current predictions about climate, technology, population, economics, politics etc. Over several decades, the novels would be compared both with each other and with the actual course of events. They would be unlikely to form a linear series. 

Poul Anderson would have been good for such a job because:

he was able to write quickly;

he wrote with both knowledge of technology and understanding of social processes;

he would have continued to write a novel (or more) a year on other topics during such a project so that his creativity would not have been channelled into a single direction.

Maybe such novels would help to communicate what is going on. Where they diverged from what really happened, it would be possible to analyse why. 

A novel written in 2020 might have shown, in 2030, global heating causing African populations to flee north, only to be drowned in the Mediterranean by a hostile Europe; government crackdowns both on migrants and on new movements for solidarity with migrants. (That might be all wrong but I heard it predicted today.)

There is another factor. Unpredictable events occur. To be realistic, such novels would have to incorporate some of those. This would make them even less likely to be accurate prophecies. Examples:

a new pandemic is all too possible, maybe statistically probable, but no one knows when, where, how lethal etc;

is it only a matter of time before terrorists nuke major cities?;

all kinds of other possibilities - we can think of some but not of others.