Arguments III

Poul Anderson, Planet Of No Return, Chapters 17-18.

Avery claims that the psychocrats have equations that interpret, explain and predict history. (p. 121) Lorenzen replies that the universe is too big to fit into any theory. (p. 126) Avery said history, not the universe. Nevertheless, it is questionable whether history can fit into any set of equations. In how much detail would historical events be predicted?

As I understand it, a TOE (Theory of Everything), if such were possible, would:

be a single mathematical equation or formula;
describe the most fundamental properties of the most fundamental entities, whatever those are, particles, waves, quanta, fields, strings etc;
unify the forces of nature;
explain the most basic laws of physics and chemistry;
still would not predict particular events.

It is also arguable that every theory is provisional so no TOE.

Avery continues:

"'Science has finally gotten to a stage where man can control his own future, his own society; war, poverty, unrest, all the things which have merely happened, uncontrollably, like natural catastrophes, can be stopped.'" (p. 121)

Wars have seemed to happen uncontrollably like natural events but have in fact resulted from human actions. To an individual who suffers either from a flood or from an enemy attack, both such events are uncontrollable, like acts of the gods. I hope that mature human beings can control their own society because it is nothing other than themselves. One perception of a warless society is that it would be undynamic but, of course, there are many ways to be dynamic without being destructive.

Avery continues:

"'But first man, the entire race of man, has to mature; every individual must be sane, trained in critical thinking, in self-restraint.'" (pp. 121-122)

I agree that universal sanity is both desirable and feasible. However, such sanity is not necessary to prevent war. It is now unthinkable that Britain, France and Germany would go to war and we can conceive of a global system, e.g., in Anderson's Terran Empire, where the entire Earth is peaceful. Further, sanity will be brought about by encouraging education and reflection, not by a millennium of secret manipulation.

Avery anticipates restraint, dignity, contentment and thought. (p. 122) We need something more dynamic than that but he is right that we need not be blind, greedy, pushing or ruthless either. I find that I must careful analyze Avery's and Lorenzen's arguments, sometimes agreeing and sometimes disagreeing.