Monday 11 October 2021

Causality

Of course, the causal process is not just a large number of parallel sequences of discrete events, each event preceded by a single cause and succeeded by a single effect. Instead, many events are directly interconnected and thus all are at least indirectly connected. While typing this post, I am hearing a TV drama and remembering a telephone conversation. At any moment, the total cosmic state is an effect of earlier such states and a cause of later states although not necessarily with Newtonian particles interacting like miniature billiard balls. In Poul Anderson's Time Patrol series, both the continuum and the world lines within it are compared to "'..a mesh of tough rubber bands...'" (a phrase used twice) and the world lines intermeshed throughout the continuum are compared to a spiderweb. Everard thinks that coincidences can be more than accidents and wonders whether Jungian synchrony is a glimpse of the truth. A few days ago, I decided to google a teacher that I had known in Ireland in the 1960s. I discovered first that he had died in 2000 and secondly that, in March this year, it was finally publicly acknowledged that his colleagues had known that he was an active, manipulative paedophile, thus generating a lot of media coverage in Ireland but unfortunately not here. I had not known of this coverage so what prompted me to google his name when I did? Without the internet, I would probably never have known. Fantastic though the Time Patrol series is, it directly touches the complexities of human experience.

12 comments:

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Paul!

And I thought just now of how an investigator for the Patrol said he and the Middle Command were troubled by seemingly small events which had not turned out exactly as recorded. I think Guion or Manse also used the spider web metaphor.

Tragic, about that active, predatory pedophile! He should have been reported to the police the earliest anyone had known (or even suspected) of his criminal acts.

Ad astra! Sean

paulshackley2017@gmail.com said...

Sean,

There was a culture of protecting the institution, not the victims.

Paul.

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Paul!

I know, but the best way to protect the institution is by lancing and draining the boil as quickly as possible. To say nothing of thereby lessening and preventing further harm to victims.

Ad astra! Sean

paulshackley2017@gmail.com said...

Sean,

That is the voice of reason, not of entrenched tradition. A headmaster knew how a teacher had behaved but simply moved him out of the school and did not think of informing the police.

Paul.

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Paul!

Thanks, re "the voice of reason." And dismissal of this teacher was not enough, if the Headmaster had a reasonable suspicion this teacher was a pedophile. And the Headmaster's behavior looks more like "We need to cover our rear ends!" than what I would call "entrenched tradition."

All this stuff about a depraved abuse of sex reminded me of Poul Anderson's story "Eutopia," with its shocker ending. Anderson seems to have covered everything!

Ad astra! Sean

paulshackley2017@gmail.com said...

Sean,

Not just in one school but in Irish Catholicism as a whole, there was a tradition of protecting the institution above all else. If you google reports about this man, Fr. Joseph Marmion SJ, you will find that this was the case. It is now admitted.

Paul.

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Paul!

Good. Uncover everything. Lance the boils quick and fast. That is the best way.

Ad astra! Sean

S.M. Stirling said...

We need to remember "post hoc propter hoc" -- that X precedes Y does not mean that X -caused- Y.

Also that causation is not necessarily determinative -- there's a chaotic element in many things that makes Newtonian "billiard-ball" determinism false.

This is why I feel that if you could "rewind" things -- run time backward -- and start over again, particularly as far as human affairs are concerned you'd get different results quite often.

For example, I'd say that if you rewound to January, 1914, you'd only get WW1 (or at least -our- WW1) about 10% of the time by the end of the year.

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Mr. Stirling!

I only wish SOMETHING could have prevented the Sarajevo Assassination and WW I we got that awful year!

Ad astra! Sean

paulshackley2017@gmail.com said...

I thought, after reading "Delenda Est," that history would not necessarily run the same way again after the Patrol had counter-intervened against the Neldorians. Then Anderson covered this point partly in "Amazement of the World."

S.M. Stirling said...

The Patrol stories do assume (it's made explicit several times) that there is an "inertia" effect which sort of pushes events towards the same timeline.

In the first Patrol stories, it's mentioned that if you went back and prevented Booth from killing Lincoln, the most probable outcome would be that someone else killed him and Booth got -blamed- for the assassination. You'd have to take elaborate precautions to prevent that.

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Mr. Stirling!

And it seems to me that the more complex these precautions get, the more likely they will fail. Because someone around Lincoln (or the President himself!) might notice funny things going on.

And then we have Anderson throwing in causal nexuses just to shake things up, as we see in "Amazement of the World" in THE SHIELD OF TIME.

Ad astra! Sean