-"Marius," p. 6.
If so few understand it as yet, then more must be taught and the accuracy of the new mathematics must be demonstrated to everyone else.
"...you wouldn't expect the Norman peasant Astier or the Parisian apache Renault to bend the scanty spare time of a year to learning the operations of symbolic sociology."
-ibid.
Nor do they understand nuclear physics but they know the results.
"...Valti's matrices...simply told you you that given such and such conditions,this and that would probably happen." (p. 7)
Only probably? (OK. If a motor mechanic tells me that my car will probably explode, then I do not conclude that it is safe to drive.)
When Fourre is not only disarmed but also frisked before meeting the Commandant/chairman of the Supreme Council of United Free Europe, he chokes his anger:
"...thinking that Valti had predicted as much." (p. 8)
Military and political historians could probably have predicted it but Valti uses mathematics.
"'If we hadn't had Professor Valti and his sociosymbolic logic to plan our strategy for us, we would still be locked with the Russians.'" (p. 10)
OK. It sounds as if Valti's equations work. I am checking for how they impact on the narrative and also for what kind of terminology is used to describe them.
3 comments:
Kaor, Paul!
And I think that "probably" fatally undermines any confidence that could reasonably be placed in Valti's "new mathematics."
And you don't need Valti's new math to understand what was causing Fourre to be greeted so warily and with suspicion by a leader who had never hitherto held any such fears. Any good political and military historian could tell you why!
Ad astra! Sean
Kaor, Sean!
Many things are, at least from the perspective of human knowledge only probabilistic. If the weather report says that it will probably rain, I take my raincoat and umbrella. If a physician says that a cancer will probably kill me unless treated, I will undergo treatment. If the physician says that there is quite a low probability of my baby suffering serious harm from vaccinations, but a large probability of her becoming severely ill, and even dying, if she is exposed to measles, tetanus, pertussis, etc. unvaccinated, then I will have her vaccinated.
And if a politician advised by Keynesian economists says that a recession will probably be lasting and severe unless Congress passes a trillion dollar “stimulus” bill, I will believe that he is ill-advised. Alright, some statements are in error whether expressed in terms of probability or not; nonetheless, just because a branch of science can only make some kinds of statements in terms of probabilities, that does not undermine whatever confidence we can reasonably place in that branch of science.
Best Regards,
Nicholas
Kaor, Nicholas!
I agree, most times, genuinely informed probabilities should be accepted as very likely to come true.
Your comment about vaccination reminded me of how some, succumbing to conspiracy theories, refuse to vaccinate their children because of it's somehow a plot of "big pharma." And I can even remember my father taking me for my polio vaccination.
Ad astra! Sean
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