Human Population Throughout The Technic History by Johan Ortiz

What this is

The Technic civilization future history takes off in our near future, in the year 2055 (THE SATURN GAME), and the Great Survey begins in 2150. Thus, the earliest part of the Technic history falls within a period for which we now have plausible world population projections. Armed with these projections and some guesstimates regarding mean population growth rates per annum, it is possible to extrapolate - roughly - the Human population in the Polesotechnic and Imperial Eras.

I will in this endeavour make use of Sean Brooks revision of Sandra Miesels chronology of the Technic civilization, because it just makes sense. Thus I take the Empire to have been founded in the early 27^th century rather than the 28^th and Flandry’s time to be the 32^nd century, him being born around 3100 AD, not in 3000 AD.

We also know the rough number of inhabited planets at the height of the Empire - 100.000 worlds acknowledged the supremacy of the Terran Emperors, although even in the late Empire there were occasional human colonies who did not, and some worlds were primarily inhabited by non-human sophonts. Even so, we can calculate a rough average population for a human world during the height of the Empire. But we also see that average might well not be typical. There is reason to believe that only the earliest human colonies ever became worlds with populations counted in the billions.

Since the Technic stories give some data regarding the population and time of founding for certain colonies like Nyanza, we can use our growth estimates to count backwards and determine the likely size of the initial colonising population. Armed with this information, we can speculate somewhat informedly about the difference between old, populated worlds and the typical colonial Imperial world. For example, we will find that even in the late Empire, Terra herself would have been exceptional for its massive population, outstripping any other human world by a large margin.

Where to begin?

The UN at present estimates (World Population prospects, 2019) that the world population will reach around 10,9 billion in 2100, although warning that it might grow as much as to around 13 billion or more worst case. If we interpret the “Time of Chaos” as a serious disturbance of civilization – famines, plagues, ecological disasters, wars – perhaps even nuclear - then those numbers would have to be knocked back a bit – but on the other hand increased wealth after the end of those upheavals and consequent raised standards of living compared to those the UN predicts might, ironically, knock them back more!

The Time of Chaos

The Technic History begins with a “Time of Chaos” taking place in the decades before THE SATURN GAME – although the nature of those troubles is left unclear. It might have been no more than our present sorry times being looked back at with horror from a better future, a time when indeed we are risking ruining both Earth and civilization. But we can make an educated guess.

In 2009, prof. John Beddington, chief scientific adviser to the British government predicted what he called “a perfect storm of shortages” – energy, food and water by 2030, which would usher in an era of international conflict and upheaval. This is around the same time we’d expect the coming climate disaster to really start to bite, which of course only reinforces the good professors projections.

This indeed sounds a lot like a “Time of chaos”.

It is not necessary to speculate on the actual sequence of events, but by 2055 the world was unified under one government, there was ample energy thanks to the introduction of efficient fusion power, and other environmental issues had been solved or were in the process of being solved by means of moving production and mining into space. Fusion power alone could well have solved the energy and climate crisis – but it is almost unimaginable that we would peacefully arrive at a World Government, the core of the future Solar Commonwealth. It is more likely that a period of savage wars over dwindling resources begun in the 2030s and/or 2040s.  This might have caused a powerful coalition of nations to confederate to restore global order, in effect creating the embryo of the future Solar Commonwealth. In any case, the World Government, whether already known as the Commonwealth or not and whether by military means or not, won a complete victory. The only hint PA gives as to the identity of the winning faction is that the Technic civilization was a heir to the Western one – so reasonably, we could guess that the coalition was at least lead by western powers. It is also notable that Anglic is the dominant Technic language.

Assumptions regarding world population and growth rates in early Technic Era

Given the probability of large scale casualties from the climate crisis and wars, possibly even limited nuclear war, plus the expected lower birth rates at higher standards of living during the 2^nd half of the 21^st century, I’m going to assume a world population of 10 billion in 2100, somewhat down from UN estimates.

As for the rate of growth until then, the most developed countries (Europe and North America) are expected to have virtually zero population growth during the coming 80 years, growing very slightly until 2050, and then contracting in the following 50 years back to 2020 levels. But assuming essentially zero growth is incompatible with what we know of the Technic era. World population will peak because the resources of Earth are not inexhaustible, leading to the cost of raising children gradually raising until  a balance is struck. But Technic civilization, eventually expanding to a hundred thousand worlds, knows not such limitations. Also, Technic civilization is not quite the same as Western. Standards of living are higher, the society richer. The number of children each couple decides to have will be dictated only to a very small extent by economic opportunities, most people will afford to have about as many or as few children as they want.

And this, in fact, comes very close to the current situation in Sweden, a country whose rates of births to deaths is notably higher than most other western countries. While taxes are admittedly high, child care is all but free, schooling is free, even higher education is free. “Free” is of course deceptive, since taxation still has to be payed – but this is regardless of having children or not, and children are in fact also directly subsidized by the state.  Of course, children still need to be clothed, feed, housed and brought up, but for the vast majority of Swedes, the number of children they choose to have is limited far more by their life style preferences than by financial considerations. Thus I am going to assume that the proportion of net births (births minus deaths) to population in Sweden is close to the natural growth rate of a human race living in affluence, security and with mostly western values. There will of course be groups retaining religious and/or cultural mores dictating much larger families – but so are there in Sweden, where roughly 20% of current population is either born abroad or born of two parents born abroad. Much if not most of this group originates outside of Europe.

So Swedish growth rates it is. And this annual rate of net births to total population was for the period 2013-2019 on average  0,25% per annum, varying between 0,23% and 0,27%. This gives a reasonable growth rate to be applied to the human population as a whole in the Technic Era.

The first colonies

Another thing we can perhaps infer is that in the World-State that followed the time of Chaos, it eventually became possible to allow open borders and global freedom om movement. The reason for this supposition is that it is stated that the first wave of colonization was driven by a desire to preserve national identity in a world that was gradually moving towards a monoculture. Thus were founded ethnic-based colonies such as Germania, Nuevo Mexico, Dayan, Denitza and many others. This freedom of movement is only imaginable if the less developed areas of Earth were able to catch up with the more developed ones, which is also part of the underlying assumptions influencing the overall human growth rates. Compare with the European Union, where freedom of movement before the inclusion of the former eastern bloc countries caused no resentment whatsoever, while afterwards, it contributed substantially to Brexit. Migration that moves small numbers both ways is much less threatening, indeed is seen as much more as personal opportunity than threat. But over a span of centuries, even such limited migration would undoubtedly meld the nations of the world ever closer together, a process reinforcing the effects of a global mass culture. This was a likely a very drawn out process, still very much uncompleted by the times of van Rijn and Falkayn (see HOW TO BE ETHNIC IN ONE LESSON) but more so in Flandry’s days.

This desire to preserve national cultures explains the otherwise puzzling appearance of League Latin as a trader lingua franca. To the newly formed ethnic worlds, using the Anglic of the Solar Common-wealth as a common language was probably unthinkable, at least early on. A resurrected, dead language like League Latin was much more palatable.

Using these assumptions defined earlier, we’ll find that by 2150 when the Great Survey was launched, human population would have reached roughly 11,3 billion, making conditions on Earth rather cramped. In the following 50 years, humans colonised a number of worlds in a first wave of expansion. These worlds must later have become the most important and populous worlds of the Empire, as we will now show.

If we follow our extrapolated growth curve, human population would rise from 11,3 to 12,8 billion by the end of the 23^rd century.  Given that Earth would have been rather crowded at the time, we can assume that most of this increase went off-world, indeed it is likely that Earth population dwindled somewhat. But with many planets colonised already, and especially if the initial wave of colonisation was driven by “ethnic” motives as is implied, then there would have been much less incentives to start new colonies in the following centuries – there are not that many nations on Earth! Rather than founding a new colony, most people would emigrate from the “old country” on Earth to the new “national” planet where there would still be ample space. There are currently around 6.000 ethnic groups on Earth, if we go by language as a definition, but most of these are very small and already on the verge of assimilation into larger groups at present in 2020 AD. A century on, most of these would have disappeared. On the other hand, the largest ethnic groups would have had little reason to fear assimilation into a Globish culture already in the 23^rd century. Thus, it would be mainly small to middle size ethnicities that would feel the need to set down roots in a new world. This might explain why we never hear of a Han Chinese planet, but we do hear about Germania, Sassania (Persian), Dayan (Jewish/Israeli), Nuevo Mexico, Hermes (Scandinavian), Unan Besar (Malayan) and so on. Even adding a few planets colonised not on ethnical but ideological basis (like pacifist Esperance), these colonies numbered at most a couple of hundred. Some of the first colonies would not necessarily have been ethnic but merely a cross-section of the polyglot populations of Earth – Alpha Centauri springs to mind, being likely among the first worlds colonised.

I will refer to these first colonies as the “Great Worlds” because of their later prominence among others in terms of population and importance.

By the end of the first wave of colonization, we would have nearly 3 billion humans living on perhaps 200 major colonies at most, and any number of much smaller colonies set up not for ethnical/ideological reasons but for commercial, like mining or trade, or simply pure pioneering drive. Their population would remain largely insignificant although growing in the coming two-three centuries, unless for some reason attracting a large number of colonists from Earth. The average Great World would have perhaps 15 million inhabitants, mostly emigres arriving over the course of the last half century. The largest would have more. Consider for example the planet of Germania, one of the most important of the early “ethnic” colonies. If we start with the current estimate of 150 million Germans of all subgroups in 2020, and always assuming that there will be no real population growth in the developed nations from here to 2100, then we could assume that by 2200, Germans as a whole would number a little over 190 million. If, again, we assume most of the growth to go off-world, then Germania could have as much as 40 million inhabitants by that date, maybe slightly more. Other worlds would have correspondingly less.

The Polesotechnic league era

Total human population would approach 24 billion by the mid-25^th century, the start of the era of Nicholas van Rijn and David Falkayn. If we assume more or less constant Earth population – maybe growing to 12 billion to allow for increased wealth and technology making room for more, then we have another 12 billion people distributed across roughly 200 Great Worlds and any number of smaller ones.

Given that even these “Great Worlds” were still virtually empty compared to Earth, and that inevitably they would have grabbed the best, most human-inhabitable worlds available after the Great Survey, it is reasonable to assume there was very little colonisation of new worlds going on - most of those wanting to emigrate from Earth choosing one of the existing colonial worlds. And any emigration from the larger colonies would be mainly by those fed up with their rustic monoethnic surroundings, instead longing for the cosmopolitan sophistication of old Earth, since untouched land would still have been plentiful on their existing worlds. This would not change throughout the era of the Polesotechnic League – even by its very end around 2600 AD, with around 35 billion human beings in total, the average Great World had no more than 120 million people – the same as Earth around 1000-500 BC. Smaller colonies remained minuscule for the most part, unless one for some reason caught the fancy of would-be emigres from Earth. Even so, their inhabitants were likely counted in the thousands, rather than millions.

Break-up of the Commonwealth and The Times of Troubles

The collapse of the Commonwealth would cause not only the birth of the Terran Empire, but a second wave of human colonisation. The first of these new colonists were driven by a will to escape the ever more overbearing and corrupt Commonwealth – among these would be Avalon, founded by David Falkayn among others. While not driven by ethnological motifs, like the first wave, they would in many cases have originated from monocultural Great Worlds and thus at least start also monocultural. Soon though, the violent collapse of the Commonwealth would drive a number of people to escape from the wrecked Earth and Great Worlds of the fallen Commonwealth. In the case of the Great Worlds, they were still so sparsely inhabited that even after having been devastated by invasion and plunder, the colonists could revert to farming to feed the population. This means that, unless several Great Worlds were depopulated by war, on the whole the growth of Human population would not have been greatly affected. In the case of Earth however, the devastation would have caused severe scarcity, even famine. While there would have been refugees from every Great World, those from Earth would logically have been the most numerous.

Probably in many cases, those small colonies founded earlier for commercial purposes would now receive waves of refugees – others would settle on entirely new worlds, hoping to escape attention from raiders. Among these would be less than ideal planets, like Ocean-covered Nyanza (THE GAME OF GLORY), which after five centuries and a second wave of colonization had 10 million inhabitants in Flandry’s time. The original ones had South African roots, but did most likely not escape directly from Earth, but rather probably some unmentioned Bantu Culture Great World. There is mention of a second German colony from which the land-bound Lubbers hail – Deutschwelt. This might be a parallel case of a colony set up by refugees from Germania.

This second wave of colonies were probably numerous, because the need to escape and hide would have been ongoing during the Times of Troubles. These extended for long enough that some planets, like Denitza, Hermes, Aeneas or Ansa became culturally militarised. If we assume that humanity suffered no great genocide during this era, and that emigration to the Great Worlds from Earth more or less stopped during this time, then at the close of the Times of Troubles around 2700 AD there would be around 44 billion humans, with about 10 billion still living on Earth, 28 billion inhabiting the two hundred or so Great Worlds and another 6 billion descended from refugees spread out over much of the remining 100.000 worlds of the future Empire – with on average around 60.000 inhabitants each. Of course, some would be substantially larger, like Avalon or Nyanza.

The Imperial Era

During the rule of the Terran Empire, the Imposition of the Pax and resumption of Trade would have allowed Terra herself to prosper again. Being the centre of Empire, we could expect her population to swell – emigration would largely stop, or even be reversed, especially early in the history of the Empire when Terra and her immediate neighbourhood were safe, but many human worlds were not. Also, as the Empire expanded, the administrative needs for manpower would have grown enormous so that at it’s peak, Terra held an population far above over what it could sustain with its own resources. Similar to Italy in the Roman Empire, the capital became parasitic, dependent on the provinces even for its basic needs.

By 2900 AD, towards the end of the era of Imperial expansion, the human race would amount to about 73 billion people, whereof perhaps as many as 18 billion lived on Terra herself, 45 billion on the Great Worlds (average population above 200 million) and the final 10 billion spread out over the 100.000 worlds mostly settled during the Times of Trouble (average population ca 100.000).

By Flandry’s time in the 32^nd century, total numbers of the human race surpassed 120 billion. Because even the Great Worlds were still sparsely populated by this time, there was little colonisation going on, there still being plenty of space on each. The population of Terra stagnated around 20 billion and remained at zero growth. Around 75 billion lived in the Great Worlds of the Empire, still with on average below 400 million inhabitants, similar to Earth in the High Middle Ages. But on the on the 100.000 worlds of the Empire, now 25 billion people made their lives. On average, there were still no more than a quarter of a million people on each. Given that a few, like Nyanza, had populations counting in the millions though, the typical colonial world would have been even less densely populated. Even at this late stage, Terra outstripped the population of almost any other human world by 20 to one.

The Long night

Before the fall of the Empire around 3500 AD, human population surpassed 325 billion. Of these more than 200 billion were on the Great Worlds, by now with an on average population of a billion each. Terra herself, remained at 20 billion and the small worlds made up the remainder with now, on average, a million people each. But this time, the greater the world, the larger the fall. With much larger populations, and dependent on the produce from a myriad smaller colonies, the Great Worlds suffered a collapse similar of that of Terra during the Time of Troubles. Terra herself was completely unable to sustain her swollen population after the fall of the Empire, and having been thoroughly plundered, there were few star ships to allow the surplus to escape, nor industries left to build new ones. In the decades following the ravage of Terra billions died of famine and epidemics. The resulting turmoil rendered the planet essentially ungovernable – it become a post-apocalyptic nightmare. Most likely, 70-80% of the peak Imperial population perished. What was left was an agricultural world not much more populous than some of the former Great Worlds, its natural resources depleted to the point of hampering any resurrection of civilization. The Great worlds suffered less, but were still plundered to the bone and left with little more than agriculture to barely be able to sustain their populations. And the myriad small colonies, too small to fend for themselves could do little more than subsist – if they were lucky - as imports of everything from energy cells to star ships ceased. Those who depended on imported nutrient supplements were doomed. It would be a thousand years before some of the former Great Worlds had rebuilt enough to relaunch civilisation, but we can be certain that it was on those planets that it happened, given the disparity in human resources and potential for self-reliance between Great Worlds and second wave colonies.

After the fall of the Terran Empire, our population growth projections no longer hold. Probably total population plummeted, even if Terra made up only a small part of humanity by then. Many colonies would have died out entirely, although the vast majority did not. The Human race eventually recovered and took to the stars once more. But that is a different story.