Sunday 11 October 2015

Sarajevo

After learning that the first assassination attempt had been unsuccessful, Princip thought about a position to assassinate the Archduke on his return journey, and decided to move to a position in front of a nearby food shop (Schiller's delicatessen), near the Latin Bridge.[79] At this point the Archdukes' motorcade turned off the Appel Quay, mistakenly following the original route which would have taken them to the National Museum. Governor Potiorek, who was sharing the second vehicle with the Imperial couple, called out to the driver to reverse and take the Quay to the hospital. Driver Lojka stopped the car close to where Princip was standing, prior to backing up. The latter stepped forward and fired two shots from a distance of about one and a half metres (5 feet)[80] using a Belgian-made 9×17mm (.380 ACP) Fabrique Nationale model 1910 semi-automatic pistol. Pistol serial numbers 19074, 19075, 19120 and 19126 were supplied to the assassins; Princip used #19074.[81] According to Albertini, "the first bullet wounded the Archduke in the jugular vein, the second inflicted an abdominal wound on the Duchess."[82] Princip was immediately arrested. At his sentencing, Princip stated that his intention had been to kill Governor Potiorek, rather than Sophie.[83]
Both victims remained seated upright, but died while being driven to the Governor's residence for medical treatment. As reported by Count Harrach, Franz Ferdinand's last words were "Sophie, Sophie! Don't die! Live for our children!" followed by six or seven utterances of "It is nothing." in response to Harrach's inquiry as to Franz Ferdinand's injury.[84] These utterances were followed by a long death rattle. Sophie was dead on arrival at the Governor's residence. Franz Ferdinand died 10 minutes later.[85]
-copied from here.

A Series Of Accidents
The first assassination attempt failed;
because of the failed attempt, it was decided to change the route of the return journey;
because of a number of mistakes and failures of communication, the route was not changed;
when this mistake was realized, the car stopped right in front of an assassin waiting to complete the job...

There were several moments when:

a time criminal might have intervened to change the outcome;
the Time Patrol might have felt compelled to intervene if events were not occurring as expected;
a fluctuation in space-time-energy might have altered one of the accidents or mistakes with pivotal consequences.

Alternative Sequences Of Events
The first assassination attempt succeeds.
The route of the return journey is changed as intended.
The route is not changed but the mistake is not realized so that the car does not stop but speeds past the assassin before he can shoot at it, as had happened several times on the inward journey.
The mistake is realized and the car stops to turn around but not anywhere near the assassin.

There are several potential Time Patrol stories here - and one has been written.

5 comments:

David Birr said...

Paul:

Imagine a comedy of errors sort of story -- very DARK comedy, I'm afraid -- in which the successful assassination was itself the result of a time criminal intervening ... and a rather less effective Time Patrol than Anderson's keeps FAILING in their attempts to put things right so the Archduke will live a long and useful life that averts both World Wars....

Sean M. Brooks said...

Kaor, Paul and David!

The Sarajevo assassination is one of those gruesomely pivotal events where the outcome might have been different if any number of absurdly small events had changed. Such as the driver NOT mistakenly following the original route. And what a MALIGNANT fate it was that the archduke's car stopped DIRECTLY in front of Gavrilo Princip!

Sean

Sean M. Brooks said...

Hi, David!

And, yes, I too would like to hope that, assuming Francis Ferdinand was not assassinated, both world wars might would been averted. And that the world would have been better than what we have now.

Sean

David Birr said...

Sean:

Alas, arguments I've seen from historians' speculation have more or less persuaded me that there would've been SOME sort of explosion in Europe, and possibly with consequences through a significant part of the rest of the world, at about the time WWI broke out, no matter who was or wasn't assassinated. There were just too many areas of tension building up, like the prelude to an earthquake or avalanche. But differing circumstances MIGHT have led to no one feeling a need for a second big war a generation or so later.

Sean M. Brooks said...

Hi, David!

I have seen similar arguments for thinking that Sarajevo or nor Sarajevo, there still would have been some kind of disastrous blow up in Europe within a few years. I am not wholly convinced and Winston Churchill in his history of WW I: THE WORLD CRISIS, makes a good argument for thinking that matters were actually fairly tranquil at the time, that it was not inevitable for the Great Powers of Europe to fall into a ruinously suicidal conflict. After all, it's also known that none of these Powers WANTED a war at the time (even if certain factions inside some of them did want a war).

But, as you said, differing circumstances, such as a war not breaking out till years later MIGHT have led to no one feeling the need to start a second conflict a generation later. Esp. if this war was short and for limited ends and not a desperate fight to the death.

Sean