In A Stone In Heaven, a Grand Duke plans usurpation. In The Game Of Empire, an Admiral not only attempts usurpation but also turns out to be working for Merseia. Unfortunately, the next work in the History of Technic Civilization series is set centuries later, long after the, also predicted, Fall of the Empire.
During the insurrection in The Game Of Empire, Dominic Flandry and his wife Miriam discuss the situation in the light of previous conversations that had been informed by Desai's analysis but nothing new is said. Flandry is against revolutions both because of the short term loss of lives and because of the longer term damage to the social fabric. If "revolution" means just another military coup, then I agree with him but, of course, there are different situations as when a mass uprising overthrows a dictatorship.
12 comments:
Hi, Paul!
Here, I agree with Flandry rather than with youu. Revolutions, far more often than not, have brought only untold agonies and harm to the societies they occurred in. How often have mass uprisings overthrown a regime and replaced it with something better? Precious few!
I thought of the Marxist Ethiopians who overthrew poor old Emperor Haile Selassie in 1974-75 as one example of a revolution bringing only ruin, disaster, and many years of wars and civil wars. So, I agree with Flandry in opposing revolutions.
Sean
I agree poor record, as yet, in replacing tyrannies with something better but I am not sure what else those living under a tyranny can do except resist it - and try to apply lessons from past disasters?
Hi, Paul!
Except, how many of those over thrown by brutal revolutions were truly tyrants? Far more often than not, men like Louis XVI of France and Haile Selassie truly did have the welfare of their countries at heart. One ex 82nd Airborne major I discussed this with said the problem was that in "traditional" societies attempts at reform and modernization are too often accompanied by ever higher hopes and aspirations which simply cannot be met, no matter how much the rulers themselves might wish for them themselves.
I'm a Burkean (after Edmund Burke) conservative. Far more often than not, attempts at drastic change or reform brings only ruin and disaster. If any reform is to be genuine, it has to be prudent, patient, cautious, moderate, etc. And that means keeping what was good from the past.
Sean
I think some real tyrants have been overthrown recently, though? I agree that the different levels of aspiration are a problem in bringing a satisfactory resolution to any national struggle. In South Africa, Apartheid at least was removed but poverty remains and struggles about that continue.
Hi, Paul!
Sure, dictators like Mubarak of Egypt have been overthrown, but I'm EXTREMELY skeptical that Morsi and the odious Muslim Brotherhood are going to be anything but worse. And both Bashar Assad and his enemies are vicious and vile people, so forget about Syria getting a half way decent gov't any time soon. And so on and on.
Sean
You are right about Morsi but the struggle continues. There is a lot of energy, hope and activity now that an apparently undefeatable dictator has been ousted. Discussing PA's novels leads to discussing some of the most basic philosophical and political questions.
Hi, Paul!
Problem is, Mubarak was not an ABSOLUTELY ruthless dictator, bound and determined to cling to power at all costs (which is what Bashar Assad seems to be). I wish GENUINELY reformist circles in Egypt well, but we shall see who wins the struggle for power there, the Muslim Brotherhood or the real reformers.
Sean
It seems to me that the reasonably stable democracies now existing, went through at least one bloody failure, before getting democracy approximately right.
See: Britain's Civil Wars of the 1640s. The 'Glorious Revolution' set up something imperfect, but good enough that peaceful reforms sufficed to improve matters
The French 3rd republic was preceded by 2 failed republics.
The US had what I prefer to call 'The War of the Slaveholders Treason'.
A country that started as a colony of a country that was already reasonably democratic doesn't *need* another bloody failure. Cf: Canada Australia. I think India counts, though definitely not Pakistan. No country should be a Christian nation or a Muslim nation or an Atheist nation... except in the limited sense that the majority of the population happens to be Christian or Muslim or Atheist.
So in the short term I am pessimistic about any country that is currently not democratic, but optimistic in the longer term.
Jim,
I agree that every state should treat everyone within its borders equally. There should be no Jewish, Muslim, Protestant etc state.
Paul.
Kaor, Jim!
Before the French Third Republic of 1870-1940 (albeit some consider the gov't in 1870-74 merely a provisional regime), there were also two failed constitutional monarchies: the Bourbon Restoration of 1814/15-1848* and the Second Empire of 1852-70.
Unfortunately, the arbitrary measures being taken by the fascistic Justin Trudeau in Canada against the Trucker Protesters casts doubt on how reliably "democratic" Canada is.
And I am not very confident about the chances for REAL democracy in Muslim or mostly Muslim countries. Islam has no tradition of Mosque and State having separate spheres of authority. The IDEAL has always been for a theocratic merging of Mosque and State under the rule of a Caliph. Or at least for the predominant use of Sharia law.
Ad astra! Sean
*But many consider Louis Philippe, who reigned in France from 1830-48, a usurper.
I mostly agree with you about Islam & democracy, though I hold out some hope for Tunisia because they have so far not put in Sharia as a part of their legal code.
BTW I have been following a podcast "Secular Jihadists for a Muslim Enlightenment" by some Ex-Muslims. https://secularjihadists.libsyn.com/ If this interests you at all I would say start with some early ones to get some background on Islam & why they left it. At least one of them holds the view that trying to reform Islam is pointless & it would be best to get people to leave it.
Re: the 'Truckers' Protest in Canada. (Truckers in scare quotes because they seem to be a small minority of people who drive large trucks.) I don't have much sympathy for the anti-vaxxers. Anti-Vax looks to be based on believing lies.
However, even if they were protesting for something I agree with I would disapprove of their tactics of disrupting transport & life of people regardless of whether they agree with the protestors & continuing to do so for weeks.
That said, I doubt the need for invoking the Emergency Measures Act. Surely there are existing laws limiting the extent to which you can block roads & make loud noise for long periods?
Kaor, Jim!
Problem is, Tunisia is only a fairly small nation and also might not be culturally representative of Islam if Tunisians are more open to Western influences than is the norm.
I did read a lot of books about Islam, including Dawood's translation of the Koran, plus Ibn Waraq's WHY I AM NOT A MUSLIM. And some Muslims, like the Ahmadiyya, are not as fanatical as far too many are. But I don't have much hope of weaning most Muslims away from at least formal belief in the rightness of Islamic supremacism and theocracy. Conversion to other faiths might be what finally puts a stop to this.
I've said it befor, I am UTTERLY fed up with covid coercion and bullying. I'm sick of masks, vaccines, mandates, lockdowns, and all the other futuile measures forced on us! My view is we are going to have to grow up and accept that covid is here to stay and will be endemic.
IIRC, NINETY percent of truckers in Canada WERE vaccinated, and only about 2000 have not been. In that case it made no sense for the tyrannical Justin Trudeau to impose those arbitrary cross border vaccine mandates.
I agree it was wrong for some Trucker Protesters to block bridges, but it was not wrong for the others to demonstrate and protest in Ottawa ouside Parliament. And it was absolutely wrong for Trudeau to dredge up the Emergencies Act against mostly peaceful demonstrators and their sympathizers.
Ad astra! Sean
Post a Comment