Desai claims that there are over fifty examples of a particular historical cycle on Earth alone. The few cases that he cites are:
three in China;
three in Egypt;
the Roman Empire;
India;
Technic civilization.
The stages are:
growth;
wrong decisions;
breakdown;
wars;
an Imperial Pax;
dissolution of the Pax;
its reconstitution;
its disintegration;
a dark age;
a new society from the ruins.
The Technic wrong decision was the transformation of the Polesotechnic League into a set of cartels. Prevention of, or recovery from, breakdown is possible but difficult. Usually, the cyclical theory is rationalized, then ignored, then suppressed. What age are we living in?
Kaor, Paul!
ReplyDelete* I * think we are living thru an era of societal breakdown and a warring states era, and that this will likely last till SOMEBODY knocks out all rivals and forcibly unifies the world. Or maybe not. I see no obvious would be Napoleon types in our times. True, some fanatical jihadists do aspire to conquer and unify the world under Muslim domination, but that's about it.
A slight correction. The current regime in China does have ambitions to dominate at least the western Pacific region. But I also have my doubts about the long term stability and likely survivability of the regime in Peking.
Sean